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It is rare that the London sky shines so bright you can’t find one cloud, but that was the weather yesterday in the capital that once used to run an empire where the sun never sets. In Washington DC, which has in many ways taken on that banner, the weather was more somber, just slightly less rainy than during the vote for Brexit, reflecting in both cases the seriousness of a monumental task that now faces the world and the country.
“We assembled here today are issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital and in every hall of power. From this day forward, a new vision will govern our land.”
So thundered the newly elected president, putting to rest any speculation that he might soften his tone. Instead, both implicitly and explicitly, the speech indicated that Trump is now to go full speed ahead with what he has promised. That suggests current market trends will probably continue as somewhat confirmed by bitcoin’s recent $40 rise.
Traders are betting that Trump’s plans are good for the economy. The already revamped White House website promises a “return to 4 percent annual economic growth,” through a one trillion infrastructure spending stimulus, “lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket,” and, somewhat directly relevant for our space, a “moratorium on new federal regulations” which “cost the American economy more than $2 trillion.”
With the republicans now controlling all legislative branches, the above economic plan is likely to go through in a relatively easily manner compared to his other aims. Moreover, it is doubtful any of it will be much diluted as Trump has seemingly made it clear in his speech that there won’t be any uturn:
“The establishment protected itself but not the citizens of our country. Their victories have not been your victories. Their triumphs have not been your triumphs. And while they celebrated in our nation’s capital, there was little to celebrate for struggling families all across our land. That all changes starting right here and right now… [w]hat truly matters is not which party controls our government but whether our government is controlled by the people.”
Facing opposition, within and outside his own party, he’ll need to maintain the support of the people. So far, he has not disappointed them. In fact, he has offered them hope and optimism for the future, promising in his speech that “we will bring back our dreams,” further stating:
“We stand at the birth of a new millennium, ready to unlock the mysteries of space, to free the earth from the miseries of disease and to harness the energies, industries and technologies of tomorrow.”
It is still just words, but how anyone will retain trust in the political system if those words are not maintained after being told “[t]he time for empty talk is over. Now arrives the hour of action,” is unclear. Perhaps, therefore, we may shift and consider the new reality as well as the biggest question now facing the world with the answer having a significant effect on bitcoin’s behavior.
Confrontation or Cooperation?
“We will seek friendship and goodwill with the nations of the world, but we do so with the understanding that it is the right of all nations to put their own interests first. We do not seek to impose our way of life on anyone but rather to let it shine as an example… We will reinforce old alliances and form new ones. And unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism, which we will eradicate completely from the face of the earth.”
From China to Arabia, Europe and South America, a defining question is preoccupying glittery halls. Do they risk confrontation, or opt-in for co-operation?
For Arabia, any proxy wars between America and Russia, exemplified by the former’s support for Saudis and the latter’s for their geopolitical rival, Iran, will hopefully be brought to an end. How, exactly, is not clear as what little is now officially stated is far too general:
“Defeating ISIS and other radical Islamic terror groups will be our highest priority. To defeat and destroy these groups, we will pursue aggressive joint and coalition military operations when necessary. In addition, the Trump Administration will work with international partners to cut off funding for terrorist groups, to expand intelligence sharing, and to engage in cyberwarfare to disrupt and disable propaganda and recruiting.”
“Peace through strength will be at the center of… foreign policy.” – his administration now says. Whether showing great strength in the middle east will be the right decision, probably in cooperation with Russia as well as maybe all of NATO, is difficult to judge impartially, but what is easier to say is that the longer this continues, the more a minority on both sides will be radicalized, at a great cost for both, increasing the urgency for a quick end to this confrontation.
The Trump administration has a strong mandate regarding ISIS, so referring to them throughout the campaign, but whether he can end this 15-years long war which, in the process, would restore the reputation of the vast majority of Muslims, remains to be seen. If he does, markets are likely to very positively react both within and outside the blockchain space.
On China, they have recently softened their tone and have suggested a desire for co-operation. Trump will probably accept their offer and begin negotiations, with the two countries’ strong economic dependence towards each other likely leading to an agreeable outcome for both, but, whether that will indeed be the case or whether they instead repeat the mistakes of almost exactly a century ago, remains to be seen.
Domestically, the left in America likewise has to decide whether to co-operate or confront the new administration. President Trump and Bernie Sanders share in common some views, especially on trade, but much of the opposition has been regarding more cultural aspects. To that, he said:
“It is time to remember that old wisdom our soldiers will never forget: that whether we are black or brown or white, we all bleed the same red blood…”
There is a minority of racists in all colors who use it as an excuse to gain power and subjugate others, as there are small minorities who want their country to rule the world or to impose their religion upon others, but, by far, the vast majority of America, and, in my view, certainly Trump, do not see color, or gender, or sexual orientation, or nationality, so knowing there are people of good and bad character in all those groups. The left may, therefore, eventually, save their resistance for when it actually matters and has a chance of gaining the support of independents.
The Rise Once More of the Cross-Atlantic Alliance
It was almost 40 years ago that Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher undertook structural reforms that shaped and still shape the world. Securing their place in history as, after a difficult period of transition, peace and economic prosperity followed.
Trump is no movie star and May is no Thatcher, but the people of Britain and the people of America have clearly once more ushered in a new era. Partly due to economics, but also, in my view, as a backlash against an elite that has given us 15 years of war and appeared to have no intention of ending it.
The very close decision by the free people of both Britain and America in the EU referendum and in the presidential election reflects the difficult choice that was to be made. Some may still fear, but our space, in particular, is a great example of the global world we live in. We interact with bitcoiners from Argentina, China, Dubai, Russia, South Africa, all over Europe and all over the world. Many of us have grown up chatting to individuals from countries across the globe. We see no color, no nationality, no religion. We consider all those qualities irrelevant wherever there is injustice. We just want back the peace and optimism of the 80s and 90s and, who knows, maybe we now might get it as Trump clearly indicates we are to move full speed ahead.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article are solely that of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to CCN.
Image from Shutterstock.